The lost mojo

For the last twenty years Chile's calling card has been political governability and economic stability. That is why one of the things I have been arguing for a while is that sooner or later the social unrest in Chile would begin to be a cause for concern for foreign investors. While the government looks upon the demonstrations with seeming disdain, I always thought that the attitude would change once Chile's image abroad started to take a beating.

Well, here we go, folks.... A few weeks after the Economist published a note, it seems Time Magazine has taken notice. Apparently, the president has lost his mojo. I bet he didn't even know he had mojo, but he doesn't any more.
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Mass demonstrations and the government

Over the last weeks and months the tendency to hold mass demonstrations has become stronger. Hundreds of thousands have marched in favour of the environment, education, and diversity. This is unusual for Chile and is worthy of further examination. It undoubtedly goes beyond the issues themselves, and presents a real challenge to every political sector and the political system as a whole.

The government's reaction has also been interesting. For the most part, the approach has been to try to isolate the demonstrators from the broader public, presenting them as violent and ideological extremists. As I say in this column published today en El Dinamo, this language seems out of date, from another -- shall we say -- more military time. Worse still, it seems to imply that these problems don't exist. That there are external forces -- either foreign interests or foreign ideologies -- financing and pushing for causes which are not really in the interest of, as an American president once put it, the great, silent, majority. If this is so, Chile seems to be heading down a great, not-so-silent, road.
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Normality, according to the Economist

The Economist thinks Chile is becoming a normal country.

They miss the point entirely.
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Thrilling

Something is happening. The Arab Spring, the Spanish 'indignados', and now Chile.

In recent weeks, hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets in protest against various proposed power generation projects and in favour of a better public education system. As Chile since 1990 has had a fairly weak civil society, the sight of so many people on the street is quite amazing. The demonstrations are mostly peaceful, although often they end in some isolated incidents, arrests and tear gas.... which is what tends to get more media coverage.

One of the most creative protests in favour of a dying educational system was last night's Thriller flash mob.

Today, a mass protest, originally aimed a pushing for gay marriage, will likely end up being a wholesale inclusion-fest, pushing for rights and accountability on the environment, education and who knows what else.

The bottom line, of course, is that all this is happening because neither the government nor the opposition have shown much interest in responding, nor do they seem to know how to respond. If this doesn't change, in the medium term we'll continue to see street protests, hopefully all as peaceful, creative and high sprited as the one in this video. In the long term, however, we could be sowing the seeds for some sort of extra-systemic political force or candidate. That could be thrilling, or just scary.
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Latest polls.... the Toledization of Chile

Last week's publication of May's Adimark poll shows that the Piñera government is in the doldrums. This led to frenzied speculation that a cabinet shuffle was in the works, even though the president himself was travelling in Europe. The UDI was (is) particularly eager to remove Interior Minister Hinzpeter, whom many blame for the lack of political dexterity the government has exhibited in recent months. RN, for their part, are anxious to remove Ena von Baer. But Piñera returned to Chile on Sunday and announced there would be no reshuffle.

Two observations can be made. On the one hand, Piñera clearly sees cabinet changes as signs of weakness, rather than political responsiveness or accountability. Since coming to power, he has only removed people (Ossandon, van Rysselberghe, etc) when their position becomes absolutely untenable or when they show clear insubordination. That is not the case with von Baer or Hinzpeter (in fact, quite the opposite).

Second, as I observed in this column in El Dínamo, we are entering a period where high growth rates and a generally good economic situation is not being reflected in poll numbers. This is troubling, and in the column I make the connection with Toledo's Peru. The disconnect between economic performance and political popularity tends to create space for extra-systemic actors; populists, caudillos, Ollana Humalas, etc.
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State of the (Dis)Union

As readers of this blog will know, Chilean presidents traditionally deliver a sort of state of the union speech on 21 May. Here is the speech President Sebastian Piñera delivered this year.

Rather than comment on the speech itself, I think the most notable thing is what is happening around the speech, and around the country. Last night 40,000 chileans took to the street in Santiago to demonstrate against the construction of a hydroelectric project in Patagonia. This has been going on, although in fewer numbers, over the last few weeks and around the country. At the same time, students are demonstrating and striking against the government's education policies, and to some degree, becuase of a lack of policies in higher education.

The government is presiding over high growth rates, but its popularity doesn't break the 45% mark. In fact, if you subtract unfavorable from favorable, the government's approval ratings are something like minus 8%. It seems this government is sort of peruvian -- economic success is not translating into approval. This is not good for democracy or governability.

And the result was seen today, both inside and outside the legislature. The tension at times broke out into name calling, poster waving, and police 'escorting' hecklers from the audience. Neither opposition nor government are distinguishing themselves in this behaviour. The Concertación is increasingly frustrated. Chile's institutional structure is such that the opposition really has little else to do than oppose. But outside the legislature, the Concertación could be much more constructive.

And the government, which has the legislative ball in its court most of the time, does not seem to have come to grips with the fact that it needs the Concertación in order to get its agenda passed, as was made clear with last week's discussion on extending maternity leave to 6 months.

And it doesn't help to have the president paint the picture he did today... of a country that wasted 20 years in the wilderness, only to be saved by the current administration. It doesn't help to claim credit for policies designed and announced by the previous government, or to exaggerate productivity, export and employment figures, as this University of Chile report details.

The opposition is not reacting well to this provocation, but it is a provocation. A healthy debate is part of the return to 'normal' politics, and represents progress from the stunted dialogue of the transition years. But it appears that Chile is on the verge of losing a civic culture that it had built up over twenty years, and that spells trouble.
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Chilean Republicanism

I was struck by the reaction of many Chileans to coverage of last week's royal wedding. Here's a commentary on it, published in El Mostrador.
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