Sunday, 13 December 2009

Election Special: Liveblogging IX

Two tough losses for the UDI. Joaquin Lavín, and Rodrigo Álvarez. The former is a former presidential candidate. The latter has been president of the House of Deputies, and a very smart and good guy. A good candidate for a possible Piñera cabinet.
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Election Special: Liveblogging VIII

The Santiago suburb of Las Condes has been a right-wing hub for ages. It is where Joaquin Lavin made his career.

This time round, however, the Alianza was worried of losing its 'doblaje', which under the binominal system would give it two seats in the House of Deputies. The source of this concern was the candidacy of Rodrigo Garcia Pinochet -- yes, that Pinochet. His grandson, in fact, who ran as an independent.

In the end, RGP got about 10% of the vote, but even then could not put a dent in the Alianza's fortress. It held on to its doblaje, electing Ernest Silva and Cristian Monckeberg.

Even a former police general, running for the Concertacion, couldn't inspire the wealthy citizens of Las Condes to move away from the Alianza.
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Election Special: Liveblogging VII

Now it's Piñera's turn. He's not saying much. He doesn't have to.
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Election Special: Liveblogging VI

Frei is speaking. He started off by reaching out to Arrate and MEO.

Ominami is also speaking. He is not endorsing anyone, and continues to criticise Frei. That's not smart of him, and not good for Frei. It will make everyone's job harder.

MEO has to decide now where he wants to go. His problem is that if Frei wins, the Concertacion will be out to get him. If Frei loses, he stands a chance of becoming an important player in the reconstruction of the Concertacion. Frei therefore has to give him an incentive to get on board.
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Election Special: Live Blogging V

The Ministry of the Interior has published the latest vote count:

Piñera: 44.2%
Frei: 30.5%
MEO: 19.4%
Arrate: 5.9%

This looks increasingly insurmountable for Frei. He would have to win all of Arrate and three quarters of MEO voters. Very tough.

In the parliamentary vote, the Concertación has a higher percentage vote than the Alianza, but thanks to the binominal electoral system, they will be about 50-50. Some major Concertación figures in the House of Deputies have been defeated. Not a good night for the Concertación.

And I congratulate my friend Ena von Baer, who has been elected as an independent UDI-friendly senator in the 15th district.
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Election Special: Liveblogging IV

First official results from the Ministry of the Interior

Piñera 44.7%
Frei 32%
MEO 17.8%
Arrate 5.5%

It's only based on about 10% of the total vote, but if this keeps up, Piñera is in very good shape. Frei is also in pretty good shape, better than even he probably expected. MEO seems to be underperforming, and Arrate is within historic ranges, but lower than I thought he would be.

Early in the evening, but it looks like Frei will have his work cut out for him
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Election Special: Liveblogging III

CNN Chile / Radio Bio Bio are suggesting the tendency is thus:
Piñera 43.9%
Frei 31.5%
MEO and Arrate 24.5%

UDP is projecting
Piñera 43.3%
Frei 26.9%
MEO 22.6%
Arrate 7.1%
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