El Dinamo asked me to list the political winners and losers for 2011. Here's the list.
I'm afraid that I was somewhat Punk'd by events, however, as yesterday the latest CEP poll came out. While I list the government as a winner, as it got through a difficult year without making major concessions - especially on the educational front - the poll shows that its popularity keeps dropping. This morning someone asked me how much lower popular support could drop. My view is that if the government attains 23% support in a booming economy, with dropping unemployment, with a disorganized opposition, and in sunny summer, there is still a ways for it to go next year, when by all accounts inflation will rise, the economic scenario is more uncertain, and the opposition will begin to coalesce for the municipal elections and, with a view to 2013, around the figure of Michelle Bachelet.