Just as Barack Obama received the Nobel Peace Prize for not being George W. Bush, Elinor Ostrom has received the Nobel Prize for Economics for not being an economist. It would, indeed, have been a bit embarrasing to reward any economist after the mess they created in the last few years, except maybe for Krugman, who already got one.
The Nobel people have taken the first step towards something that they should have done some time ago: a Nobel Prize in Political Science.
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Monday, 12 October 2009
Saturday, 10 October 2009
Time is running out
La Tercera has published a poll in the aftermath of the last presidential debate.
Just like last time the CEP was collecting data for its important poll, La Tercera tries to model public opinion in favour of their desired outcome. The poll is of dubious quality, the strategy is of dubious ethical standards, but it works. And time is running out. With Bachelet's approval rating where they are (78% according to last week's Adimark poll), with the economy on the mend, with the level of public spending where it is, and with an unattractive candidate on the opposition, this was, once again, the Concertación election to lose.
Yet it has mishandled its candidate selection process, mishandled MEO, mishandled its communication strategy, mishandled the debates and the postdebate media cycle. If they keep this up, it's curtains. Time is running out.
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Just like last time the CEP was collecting data for its important poll, La Tercera tries to model public opinion in favour of their desired outcome. The poll is of dubious quality, the strategy is of dubious ethical standards, but it works. And time is running out. With Bachelet's approval rating where they are (78% according to last week's Adimark poll), with the economy on the mend, with the level of public spending where it is, and with an unattractive candidate on the opposition, this was, once again, the Concertación election to lose.
Yet it has mishandled its candidate selection process, mishandled MEO, mishandled its communication strategy, mishandled the debates and the postdebate media cycle. If they keep this up, it's curtains. Time is running out.
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Sabatini makes a point
Greg Weeks has been consistent (and consistently entertaining) in his coverage of the crisis in Honduras. Actually, it's probably too late to keep calling it a crisis. It is an ongoing shame on the OAS, Latin America, and the US.
One reason that it's a shame is that much of the debate has centred around the kind of double standards that Chris Sabatini outlines here.
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One reason that it's a shame is that much of the debate has centred around the kind of double standards that Chris Sabatini outlines here.
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Tuesday, 6 October 2009
Frei's New Constitution: Not Granola
The polls don't show it, but I still believe the odds are in Frei's favour to win the presidential election, although certainly in the run-off. If that materializes, then we need to have a serious discussion on Frei's serious constitutional proposals.
The MSM in Chile still deals with constitutional issues as some sort of left-wing fetish, akin to granola or Birkenstocks. But as anyone who has studied Chile just a little bit knows, there are some areas that need fixing. For me, the main point is not the electoral system per se, but representation as a whole: for minorities, for aboriginal groups, for anyone who is basically not part of the elite. This is the hardest thing to fix, because elite groups don't give up power easily. In this sense, the Oceanos Azules proposal is pretty remarkable, considering that the people who drew it up are -- let's face it -- pretty much part of the elite themselves.
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The MSM in Chile still deals with constitutional issues as some sort of left-wing fetish, akin to granola or Birkenstocks. But as anyone who has studied Chile just a little bit knows, there are some areas that need fixing. For me, the main point is not the electoral system per se, but representation as a whole: for minorities, for aboriginal groups, for anyone who is basically not part of the elite. This is the hardest thing to fix, because elite groups don't give up power easily. In this sense, the Oceanos Azules proposal is pretty remarkable, considering that the people who drew it up are -- let's face it -- pretty much part of the elite themselves.
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Saturday, 3 October 2009
Why the brouhaha?
If anyone is still wondering why the bigwigs of Chile Transparente reacted so switftly, this week's Qué Pasa offers a pretty convincing clue. As Deep Throat said, follow the money.
Friday, 2 October 2009
Nasty
I don't know if it is my imagination, by the current presidential campaign seems to be nastier than previous ones. Since the issues are non-existent, whatever debate there is seems to quickly descend into personal attacks. Nothing shows this more clearly than the manufactured outrage surrounding Eduardo Frei's reference to a Transparency International report which names Piñera as a protagonist in some alleged insider trading involving LAN stocks. The media-led frenzy overshadowed any rational analysis of the debate itself, not to mention Piñera's behaviour which led to the accusations. In the long run this is going to frustrate the hell out of the Concertación, and their message will become increasingly desperate and nasty.
But it will be worse on the right. There are already some rumblings from the UDI on Piñera's performance. But are they really complaining about the debate, or is the problem more profound? If you look at Piñera's actual policy statements and positions, inasmuch as they exist, he does not sound all that different from Frei. His promises sound like more of the same, only more so. More jobs created, more police on the streets, more social protection. More, more, more. I guess that's how billionaires become billionaires. They always want more.
For the UDI and others on the right, this is probably insufficient. Where is the social agenda? Where are the rollbacks on social spending? Where is the end to legal troubles for former military officers? Besides a promise of tax cuts (which seems unlikely in a country with a ridicuously low tax burden), these things have not been mentioned becuase they're not there.
So the right is getting frustrated, not because they are afraid Piñera might lose (and well he might), but because they are afraid Piñera might win.
And then watch them get nasty.
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But it will be worse on the right. There are already some rumblings from the UDI on Piñera's performance. But are they really complaining about the debate, or is the problem more profound? If you look at Piñera's actual policy statements and positions, inasmuch as they exist, he does not sound all that different from Frei. His promises sound like more of the same, only more so. More jobs created, more police on the streets, more social protection. More, more, more. I guess that's how billionaires become billionaires. They always want more.
For the UDI and others on the right, this is probably insufficient. Where is the social agenda? Where are the rollbacks on social spending? Where is the end to legal troubles for former military officers? Besides a promise of tax cuts (which seems unlikely in a country with a ridicuously low tax burden), these things have not been mentioned becuase they're not there.
So the right is getting frustrated, not because they are afraid Piñera might lose (and well he might), but because they are afraid Piñera might win.
And then watch them get nasty.
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