Election Special: Liveblogging II

In Chile polls close if everyone has voted, so some polls around the country have started counting. Which is pretty odd, if you think about it, becuase they show the count on TV, which could influence others who have not yet voted.

Having said that, TVN is showing the count at a poll in Concepción. Piñera is in first place, which is no surprise. But it's a tough slog for the number 2 position.

It's only one poll, but still. Some people are going to have a loooong night.
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Election Special: Liveblogging I

I have voted. Won't say for whom.

Some further observations on Election Day:

Over the last few years I have voted several times at the same polling station in Santiago, and this was the first time I had to wait in line. Draw whatever conclusions you wish.

José Miguel Izquierdo is a friend and colleague. He exemplifies the word mensch. But he is appearing on television as a 'cientista político', offering his 'analysis' of the electoral situation, which is rather disingenuous when he is a close advisor of Sebastián Piñera. That aside, he is talking about a National Unity government. What is that about? It's about the fight for the the middle, the undecided, the median voter.

The struggle to win over MEO's votes has begun.
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Putting my money where my mouth is

I suppose I should make a prediction for tomorrow's election. Here goes.

Piñera: 41%
Frei: 30%
Enríquez-Ominami: 17%
Arrate: 10%

This is based entirely on gut feeling, conversations with colleagues and people involved in the campaigns. The margin of error is 2%, only because I say so.

Note that this leaves Piñera very far away -- almost impossibly far away -- from the finish line. Draw your own conclusions.

It also leaves Frei with a difference of over 10% with Piñera, which Conventional Wisdom has suggested is the kiss of death, an impossible breach. Let's see.
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Governability

Well folks, it's the final countdown. Polls open in a few hours. Since it is highly likely that Piñera will come in first, I jotted down some thoughts on what guarantees of governability a Piñera government could offer. It was published in El Mostrador.
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Ethics, coming from Perez de Arce

This is what one of Chile's most right-wing commentators, who used to be a columnist in El Mercurio, has to say about Sebastián Piñera.

Ejemplifiquemos con hecho recientes. Todo el tema que se ha debatido con esta compra de Lan que hizo menos de media hora después que conoció los estados financieros de Lan. Es una falta de ética, es una falta de delicadeza y entonces a mí no me gusta que el futuro Presidente de la República incurra en faltas de esa índole, porque el ejercicio del cargo puede prestarse a eso y mucho más. Cuando yo era compañero de lista de él, Sebastián Piñera tenía lo que se llama un topo en mi comando presidencial. Y digo que si una persona hace uso de esos elementos y es Presidente de la República, podría poner topos en partes muy inconvenientes. Y no me gustaría que el Presidente de la República, con todo el poder que tiene, tuviera esa capacidad de penetrar organizaciones.

For the record, the two go way back, and not in a good way, so it has been clear for a while that Perez de Arce would not support Piñera. But the way he sees Piñera's business practices, and general MO, from up close, seems to fit with the popular view.
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Smell the Chilean roses

Homer Simpson likes to say, "It's funny because it's true".

Well, this isn't exactly funny, but it is rather nice, and it's also true. For those of you who know Chile:

Smell the roses… and everything else around you; smells that delight, that repulse, that intrigue, that confuse, that alarm, that soothe; smells that say home and smells that
spell trouble; smells known and unknown, smells that will become familiar as
this strange place becomes yours. The señora next door is frying onions at 9:00
am as she starts preparing a lunch (why so early if they eat at 2, you wonder);
warm yeasty smells waft from the bakery as people line up for hot rolls and
empanadas; the Nuts for Nuts guy stirs his peanuts into the hot and sugary red
syrup to make his maní confitado; a motorbike whizzes by leaving a
trail of gas fumes in his wake; roast coffee aromas waft from the Café Haití;
waves of stale smoke and beer are swept out of a bar before noon, an unwashed
hand is extended in front of the church; heavily perfumed men, women, and even
children leave their scent in an empty hallway, on a vacant telephone, in the
taxi they have just stepped out of; close your eyes and breathe deep—the market
is filled with the juiciest of fruits and the freshest of vegetables, the metallic scent of recently butchered meat and the coastal smell of the daily catch. The city is teeming with smells-odors-fragrances-aromas-bouquets-stinks and scents that together spell out Santiago, or Valparaíso, or La Serena, or Santa Cruz, the Andes, the Pacific, Atacama, Patagonia… smells that burn “Chile” into your olfactory memory.

More can be found here.

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Well that didn't take long

When I heard that six people have been charged in the death/murder of former president Eduardo Frei, my first reaction was not 'Good, they got the bastards', or 'Good heavens, it really was murder'. My first reaction was to wonder how long it would take for the opposition to accuse the government of somehow orchestrating the legal proceedings for electoral benefit.

It took a few hours. Nice.