Saturday, 12 December 2009

Putting my money where my mouth is

I suppose I should make a prediction for tomorrow's election. Here goes.

Piñera: 41%
Frei: 30%
Enríquez-Ominami: 17%
Arrate: 10%

This is based entirely on gut feeling, conversations with colleagues and people involved in the campaigns. The margin of error is 2%, only because I say so.

Note that this leaves Piñera very far away -- almost impossibly far away -- from the finish line. Draw your own conclusions.

It also leaves Frei with a difference of over 10% with Piñera, which Conventional Wisdom has suggested is the kiss of death, an impossible breach. Let's see.

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